For the past two decades, I’ve written about HR forecasts, but this year is different. I envision a year of paradigm shifts that will transform every aspect of business. AI will not only change every firm and every job, but it will also drive companies to strive for increased productivity.
Consider where we have been. Following the 2008 financial crisis, the world entered a period of rapid development characterized by zero interest rates. Companies increased revenues, added employees, and saw their stock values rise. Hiring continued at a rapid pace, resulting in a record-low unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2019.
The pandemic struck, and within six months, everything came to a halt. Unemployment increased to 15% in April 2020, employers took employees home, and we redesigned our products, services, and economy to accommodate remote work, hybrid work arrangements, and a focus on mental health.
When the economy recovered (due to fiscal stimulus in the United States), corporations resumed their hiring cycles. However, as interest rates rose and demand decreased, layoffs continued, and over the last 18 months, we’ve seen hiring, layoffs, and then hiring again to recover.
Why the seesaw effect?
CEOs and CFOs operate in what is known as the “Industrial Age”: they hire to grow and then lay off employees when business slows.
Today, as we approach 2024, everything is different. We must “hoard our talent,” invest in productivity, and retrain and redeploy employees for growth.